I don't need DXO or DPreview to tell me what higher resolution does with ISO noise. Shrink a 18/21/24mp image to 12mp size and compare it with both shot at 6400ISO for noise. I think you'll be surprised with the results.
Drew I think the discussion about compensating for noise by simply shrinking higher MP images is a BS one, and yes I have compared real life images. And I know you disagreed with me on this before. Furthermore these have been similar images taken with similar framing of the image topside and underwater (not later manipulated and magnified just to look for noise). I have actually run test strips in black and white and color in my 4800 printer to demonstrate this to myself. Cameras used have been a D200, D700, D3 and D3x. The effect of high ISO noise that is more important than just seeing grain, is actual degradation of the image, which becomes particularly evident in the shadows. The result is muddiness of the shadows and loss of finer gradations of tone within the shadows, this is NOT improved by more MP. Muddy grey is muddy grey, no matter how many MP you have.
The striking thing about the abilities of the newer high ISO cameras (already evident in the 5D, and lost a little in the 5DMKII) is to really be able to SEE into the shadows in low light in a way that is closer to the way our eyes are able to, and much less about noise graininess in my opinion. (Except in as much as noise degrades the shadows). If one looks at movies like Nocturne, and the D3s bear movie, what's striking is that these cameras can actually see in the dark much more like our eyes do. Taking lesser capable cameras and simply turning up the ISO simply does not achieve the same thing irrespective of magnification or MP. At lower ISO like 800 or so, this is less evident and the higher MP argument holds water, but at 1600, then 3200 and 6400, it simply does not stand up to scrutiny. I've seen this very clearly comparing a D3 and D3x, beyond 800 ISO having more MP is of no value in dark water, available light etc. I saw this clearly demonstrated in Cocos.
I also do a lot of dance and performance photography, frequently using 3200 and 6400 without flash of course, where shadow penetration, detail in the shadows, is the issue, not whether there is graininess within the image.
Underwater I have proved this to myself as well seeing strikingly different images ( particularly in the shadows) comparing a D200 and D700 at 800 and 1600 ISO. In well lit areas, the difference is far less evident.
I am not knocking MP, I too am waiting for a higher MP camera, but I'm not convinced it will be the best camera for all situations.
Unfortunately, the ability to crop higher MP images does not always hold water, underwater. (Sorry for the bad pun) Often the need to crop will be because the animal is too far away, in which case degradation of the image will have more to do with water interface.
Obviously we will never agree on this, and I promise this is my last post on this thread as we have certainly flogged it to death, but to get back to the original main point here, is it worth switching systems when either Nikon or Canon come out with new models. In my opinion the answer is no with presently available cameras unless 1024 video is the critical factor here and now. Or unless you really need to count eel spots.